THE ELLIOTT DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
Monday's market comment
Yesterday we were getting "two day buy signals that suggest Tuesday down , it was, hard, with any buying coming in late Tuesday , or Wednesday."
Not a bad move Tuesday, with our buying coming in later in the afternoon.
Early indicators of a positive close came in from the Banking stocks, with Apple Computer, and Research in Motion putting their low of the day at the open.
Today I look for morning weakness in the first hour or so with strength coming in later again with the Indexes looking for new highs from yesterday's lows.
Upside hourly 50 SMA's are important as targets for the market pop to falter and roll over again.
Should yesterday's lows be a significant then the DJ should fail the 60 minute 50 SMA then dip, but fail to make a new low, and then blow thru the hourly 50 SMA.
DJ-30 support 11,337, and 11,289 with resistance at 11,404 and 11,609.
QQQQ support 45.52 resistance 46.35
SP-500 support 1278.86 and 1273 resistance at 1300
TODAY'S MARKET, Thursday
A perfect call for the morning dip, but no rally in the afternoon. No "new highs" from the low rally. The last hour triggered a -100 point drop with severe weakness in the US Dollar, rising oil, and the announcement from Merrill that GM could be facing bankruptcy within a year. I expected one more day positive before a big slide from the "Snap Back Down" signal for the Indexes that was building up from Monday and Tuesday…..
Today I see limited downside moves with the DJ-30 , DJ-65 moving again into the oversold LR30-30 area. Opening moves should be to the down side following the movement from yesterday.
This is not a place to be adding short positions for the indexes, but rather again wait for rallies and rollovers to add to downside positions.
We now have GM at 1954 prices, Ford heading to the same area, and the Stock Market here in the US to make moves to lows not seen in the last market correction of 2000.
While oil continues to new highs by leaps and bounds, we are seeing some selling coming into some of the energy stocks in anticipation of a break in oil prices.
XOM, COP, BP, CVX, RDS.B etc ….
GOVERNMENT REPORTS
Jul 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jun - 33.8 33.7 33.7 -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jun - 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/28 - 375K NA 384K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jun - -50K -50K -49K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jun - 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% -
Jul 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jun - 52.0 51.5 51.7 -
MARKET TRENDS
Long Term : 100% BEAR: Weekly failure of 50 SMA, start of Bear, confirmed on failure of Weekly 200 SMA (on 6/26).
Intermediate Term: BEAR: Both failed daily 50 and 200 SMA.
Short Term: BEAR : Hourly Below the 50 SMA and BELOW THE 200 SMA.
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DJ-30 closed Friday in a Snap back down formation move at the close on the hourly. We should complete that pattern then look for a up move for the daily close.
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Last update : 03-07-2008 05:25
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