THE ELLIOTT DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

Tuesday's July 15th, market comment

We did get a great morning bounce in all the indexes Monday, with an almost immediate drop down to the lower range of Friday's market.
Last night's chat and indicators suggested a down move in the morning for the Indexes, and a up move in Oil and Gold with their highs in the AM.

Overnight we saw Asia realize they have $50 Billion of exposure in Freddie and Fannie helping them to one of their worst days this year. And to add fuel the morning selling we saw Europe, Britain and Germany both issue bad numbers for the equity markets.

Market openings suggest testing new lows for the year for most if not all the indexes.
Targets for any large sell off this morning for the markets would find support at :
DJ-30 at 10,881
SP-500 at 1211.25
QQQQ at 43.40
IWM 6200

I am not seeing anything that would suggest a positive close today, yet.
Hourly charts continue to show the Indexes in a down MOBO with resistance still at the hourly 50 SMA.


This market bottom call we have made this week is NOT THE BOTTOM, in my opinion, but a oversold bounce in a down market that has plenty of road to travel in a down move yet to come.


TODAY'S MARKET, Wednesday, July 16, 2008.
Yesterday gave us the perfect reversal signal intra day below our downside target.
I posted to TCNET chat : "[7/15/2008 10:05:12 AM] <FirstWave> DJ HS on 30 min
" Which means we had a very good reversal signal with Hockey Sticks" technical pattern for a reversal on the TSV study on the DJ-30, a Wallstreetteachers.com technical pattern. This was the same pattern for the +200 price pop for the DJ-30 we saw last Friday. Tuesday this signal gave us a +296 point reversal !

Today I am looking for a follow thru of the up move the DJ-30 made off the lows yesterday, with the intraday dip at the close completing, and then a wave three on the hourly charts giving us a positive close for most indexes.

Oil broke, in my opinion, at least for the short term. We went long DTO on the morning dip, selling with a 11% move. Watch the airlines react positively to any continued down move on oil, showing a wave three up on their hourly charts.



This market bottom call we have made this past week is NOT THE BOTTOM, in my opinion, but a oversold bounce in a down market that has plenty of road to travel in a down move yet to come. This bear market should challenge some 2000 bear market lows.

GOVERNMENT REPORTS


-
Jul 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Jun - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Jul 16 8:30 AM CPI Jun - 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% -
Jul 16 9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases May - NA NA $115.1B -
Jul 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jun - 79.4% 79.4% 79.4% -
Jul 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jun - 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% -
Jul 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/12 - NA NA -5840K -
Jul 16 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Jun 25 - - - - -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Jun - 980K 970K 969K -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jun - 985K 968K 975K -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/12 - NA NA 346K -
Jul 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jul - -15 -15.2 -17.1

TRADE STATION USERS, WE ARE SETTING UP A SPECIAL PROGRAM FOR YOU TO SET UP WITH OUR TCNET SETTINGS.




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Last update : 16-07-2008 06:24

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