THE ELLIOTT  DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

Thursday's, July 3^rd, market comment

A perfect call for the morning dip, but no rally in the afternoon. No "new highs" from the low rally. The last hour triggered a -100 point drop with severe weakness in the US Dollar, rising oil, and the announcement from Merrill that GM could be facing bankruptcy within a year. I expected one more day positive before a big slide from the "Snap Back Down" signal for the Indexes that was building up from Monday and Tuesday…..
Today I see limited downside moves with the DJ-30 , DJ-65 moving again into the oversold LR30-30 area. Opening moves should be to the down side following the movement from yesterday.
This is not a place to be adding short positions for the indexes, but rather again wait for rallies and rollovers to add to downside positions.
We now have GM at 1954 prices, Ford heading to the same area, and the Stock Market here in the US to make moves to lows not seen in the last market correction of 2000.
While oil continues to new highs by leaps and bounds, we are seeing some selling coming into some of the energy stocks in anticipation of a break in oil prices.
XOM, COP, BP, CVX, RDS.B etc ….




TODAY'S MARKET, Monday
A positive day for the day before July 4^th left us with a failed new low market test for all the indexes except the QQQQ.
Current market indicators suggest we are again oversold for a bounce.
The McClellan Summation Index is well below -2400 an area that has seen five bounces in the last 10 years, Sept. 98, Oct. 99, July 02, Aug. 07. Some of these bounces were as short as 6-7 weeks. A quick short covering bounce here could last thru the rest of the summer with help from the weakening of the oil markets. This could last until the fall and the seasonal selling months.
Buying could come into the stock market favorites of the last major rallies, minus the energy stocks.
The McClellan Oscillator is also tapping into the oversold area as well at -190. This area has given upside moves of 3 or more days once the market turns.
Today, I am looking for market supports for last week to hold, and any tests of them to reverse to the upside.
DJ support 11,160 with resistance intra day at 11,335 and 11,494
Sp support 1252 with resistance at 1277.40 and 1290.65
QQQQ support 4428 with resistance at 45.29 and 45.89
IWM Russell, support 65.77 and resistance at 68.42 and 69.47


GOVERNMENT REPORTS

Jul 8 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May - - -3.0% 6.3% -
Jul 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May - 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% -
Jul 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit May - $5.0B $7.0B $8.9B -
Jul 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/05 - NA NA -1982K -
Jul 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/05 - NA NA 404K -
Jul 11 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun - NA NA 0.4% -
Jul 11 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun - NA NA 0.5% -
Jul 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance May - -$61.0B -$62.1B -$60.9B -
Jul 11 10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul - 55.0 56.0 56.4 -
Jul 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun - NA $36.5B $27.5B

TRADE STATION USERS, WE ARE SETTING UP A SPECIAL PROGRAM FOR YOU TO SET UP WITH OUR TCNET SETTINGS.




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Last update : 07-07-2008 05:58

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