Market Commentary:
The market, DJ-30 closed UP 85  points THURSDAY  AT 12,848.

MOBO = Momentum break out of our formula Bollinger bands
M.A.P. = (Moving Average Price Pattern) around the Major moving averages.

Overall Outlook. DJ-30 as reference.

MARKET OUTLOOK : HOURLY TREND  positive IN A WAVE 3 IN the MOBO AND ABOVE THE 50 SMA FROM 4/16. WAVE STARTED OFF 4/23 LOWS.  


Long Term, BEAR , DJ-30, (below weekly 50sma and above
200sma) THIS IS OUR TARGET ON ANY DOWN MOVE FOR THE DJ-30. Weekly 200 sma .    Weekly 200, 11,400,  is the only SMA not broken for a Defined recession Bear market.   

Medium Term: start of short term BEAR market , Daily Index charts ABOVE 50 SMA, BELOW 200 SMA daily.  


Short Term   BULL Market, (hourly price are above the 50sma and is currently above THE HOURLY 200 sma).  

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Wednesday's    MARKET COMMENT
Yesterday saw the morning rally with a morning dip as we expected from the technicals and a rally into the close. DJ stopped within 2 points of our chat call of 12,835 high yesterday.
"  the USD giving a buy signal for an up close today that should help drop oil for at least one day !  "  Look for more USD upside and more Oil selling pressure.
Oil did rally on DUG, while USO still held it's highs. We should see some breaks in oil today with several sell signals in the last two days in the oils sector and oil.

Today the Indexes suggest a positive close. That is in spite of any Governm3ent reports.
DJ support 12,651 (short stop) resistance 12776, 12,838, 12,969
QQQQ support 45.85 (short stop) resistance 47.20 and 37.39
SP-500 support 1367.50 (short stop) resistance 1387..87, 1395.90

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TODAY'S MARKET COMMENTS:
Yesterday we said; "Today the Indexes suggest a positive close. That is in spite of any Government reports."  
Today we have overnight technicals suggesting an up morning and a positive close. The DJ is fighting this week's highs and a strong down trend line from the market highs of last year, hence the volatility at these highs.
The US Dollar continues to rally to recent highs and hit 73.00 this early AM. This should put continued pressure on oil and the metals that we have called lower.

My next upside for the DJ-30, assuming we don't rollover today and have a massive sell off, is the weekly 50 SMA at 13.256.
Today's target for the DJ is 12,963, support 12,721
QQQQ target is 47.98 and support 46.26
SP-500 target is 1404, support is 1375

I continue to believe we will have new lows in the financial markets before we have new highs. And that this recession will be one of the worst most folks will remember. While the 2000 recession was a techno bubble pop this is a real estate and financial pop. Something more serious and will have more sever repercussions, in my opinion.

Many market corrections are initiated by event. We have yet to face the trigger that sends us crashing down for many months or years. It may take us until the next congress and president to get that trigger. Or it could be an unexpected cut off of
oil supplies, or an event such as that to trigger the next big wave of selling.

For those waiting for our Stock pick selection service, "HOT stocks" we should have it ready over this weekend. Sorry for the delay but a death in the family of our programmer pushed things back a couple of weeks.  We have continued with outstanding returns this month with an average gain in excess of 9% for April.



IT IS STILL MY OPINION THAT THIS IS TECHNICAL  MARKET BOUNCE AND THAT THE MARKETS WILL EVENTUALLY AGAIN RETEST MARCH LOWS.
ACTIONS BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL COME TOO LITTLE TO LATE TO STOP THE NEW MARKET LOWS AND ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN….. recession   THESE ARE OPINIONS AND WILL HAVE TO BE PROVED OUT BY THE TECHNICALS.
WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM OF A RECESSION MOVE YET.


Our next Cruise is in the Mediterranean in Sept. or Oct. 2008   ALL CLASSES ARE FREE FOR EVERYONE ON THE CRUISE.   
the movie     http://www.tincanfilms.tv/WallStreetTeachers.html


The Seminars at Sea cruise, 2009 will be posted this week l http://www.wallstreetteachers.com/Seminars/Seminars.html

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METALS, DOLLAR, OIL INTEREST RATE MARKETS:
Any rate cuts today moves all metals upward to our targets.

GOLD,   Gold down day. Again  $940 magic 50 sma .  

SILVER      Down  day, again   $18.38 target failed last week , 50 sma.

COPPER  a drop now to retest the bounce. $4.00 resistance.  
  
US DOLLAR.   Up day number 3
 
OIL, LIGHT SWEET CRUDE  Oil , bounce then Dip
30 year GOV. BOND Interest Rates     Short term rates lower


GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATE REPORTS 

PRE MARKET MOVERS
POSITIVE MOVERS
PGNX
ERIC
TRMB
ARBA
LSCC
MCRL
IBKR
YRCW
CVTX
BUCY

NEGATIVE MOVERS
ISIS
SIRF
NTGR
AVID
SYNA
UCBH
BJRI
MSFT
SHPGY
IDMI

MOBO AND 50 SMA BREAKOUTS AND GAPS TO UPSIDE

98
AIG
WAVE,  ON AN INTRA DAY DIP.
HOTT
GRT
AOB
FLEX
TWX
RAIL
LEH
CNK
CENT
NAFC

SPECIAL SITUATIONS FROM THE FIRSTWAVE TCNET CHAT CLUB


BULL ENGULFING
CLDN
FCEA
CEPO



SNAP BACK
NSC
LECO
BLX
NFX

SHORT TERM BULL REVERSALS
KLAC DAY 3
JRJC DAY 3
MRVL DAY 3
MRCY DAY 3
HYTM
FALC


WEEKLY 50 SMA  SNAP BACK UP 
AEL
ZQK
PGI



STOCKS < $2.00 TO WATCH
CHRT
BE
FBR
EPIX
PGIC
FTWR



IPO MOVERS new issues within last 2+ years.
CENTA
CNK
RAIL
AOB
KBR
KNL



 
MOBO BREAKING LOWER BAND AND 50 SMA BEAR KICKERS
181
cra
aks
whr
nok


BEAR ENGULFING FAILING THE 50 SMA
PGB
TEN

 LAST Emini class    SOLD OUT

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Broker/Dealer and does not provide investment advice or
recommendations.
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TCNET "firstwave" club are advised that the information, opinions,
and analysis included there are based in good faith on sources
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Last update : 25-04-2008 05:57

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