Are commodities finally done? Are equities back for good? Not so far, says regulatory data issued Friday. The latest Commitments of Traders report, which highlights trillions in dollars of positioning in over 100 markets, suggests the U.S. dollar is still in trouble, that commodities may have bottomed (at least temporarily) and that equities face more headwinds. You can check out my signals from my trading setups based on this data at the table linked here. Also see my newly updated portfolio page for my latest positions. Some highlights:
- Still no sign of better times from my trading setup for the S&P 500. The commercial traders remain decisively negatory with their net position as a percentage of the total open interest. My commercials signal is in bearish mode. The other signal in this setup - based on fading the small trader total open interest - is in bullish mode. Since these two signals don't agree, this setup remains in cash. As well, because of the three-week trade delay for both signals, there is no possibility of a new signal before Sept. 12 at this point.
- My Russell 2000 setup has gone bearish for this week. But I should note this is a short-term trade that will last only one week. This is another combined setup that follows the signals of two groups of traders, when they agree. Based on the trade delays for the two signals, the overall setup will either go to cash or bullish as of the open, Aug. 25.
- My setup for silver is in bullish mode and is showing the second-most bullish reading in relation to historic positioning since the data started in 1995. The commercial traders are now 2.7 standard deviations above the moving average I use for this setup in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest in silver futures and options. This, coupled with the fact that commercial traders in the U.S. dollar index are at a historic extreme in their bearish positioning, suggests the recent rally in the greenback is done (at least for now).
Good luck this week!
TAGS: S&P 500, Russell 2000, silver, U.S. dollar, COT, Commitments of Traders, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer
Read more at: Recommend this article... Related items
Last update : 16-11-2008 09:07
|
(0 vote)
