David Elliott's MARKET COMMENTARY

Monday December 1 , Market comment.
Last Friday, the ½ trading day saw a light volume rally to the upper side of our market range. Last Friday, on a daily, and on a two day chart, combining the action of Wednesday and Friday, we got sell signals going into the close.

In keeping with the sell signals we went long some "Short ETF's", and short the DJ Emini Futures, over the weekend, in order to grab the likely gap down move for Monday.

Today, I am looking for the start of the market retest of the lows of November.
I am expecting, and hoping, that they fail to produce new lows, that would signal it is a wave 2, and give us the signal for the third leg of three legs for a positive move into Christmas and new highs for this bottom bounce.
A rally into December would be psychologically beneficial for the markets and traders. New market lows we can save, and savor, for 2009.
DJ-30 supports come in at 8600 and 8410 today.
QQQQ supports come in at 28.40 and 27.60
SP-500 supports come in at 858. And 830

Tuesday, December 2, 2008.

Monday was another super big market drop from our tremendous EPPV sell signals, and the McClellan Oscillator Over bought signal.
Over -679 points down on our technical sell signals.
This was the 4^th biggest drop in market history.
The top on Friday was the SP-500 hourly 200 SMA within 4 cents.

This market drop was large enough to give an intra-day oversold on the very short term for a market bounce for 1 day. Our look at the McClellan Oscillator in chat last night revealed that big McClellan drops often see a 1 day reversal bounce, or bounce and drop before continuing down from their longer over bought area.
( I will post a chart of the McClellan Oscillator and its current move in the Email site FILES for review).

Today we can look for a opening bounce towards our first DJ-30 resistance at 8249 and 8526.
DJ-30 Fibonacci support comes in at 7986 area for our wave 2 support.

QQQQ first resistance is 27.56 then 27.86. Our Fibonacci targets are 26.74 and 26.10.

SP-500 first resistance is 829.90 and 861.79. Our Fibonacci supports start at 803 and 781.44.

I am still looking for a market dip failure to take out the lows of 11/21.
Should that low hold it would propel us to new highs for the week, and give us the DJ-30 target of the 50 SMA.



Remember to have a plan and trade the plan. If you do not have any exit plan do not initiate a opening order.



GOVERNMENT REPORTS


Dec 2 12:00 AM Auto Sales Nov - 3.8M NA 3.8M -
Dec 2 12:00 AM Truck Sales Nov - 4.3M NA 4.1M -
Dec 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Nov - - -173K - -
Dec 3 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q3 - 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% -
Dec 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Nov - 43.5 42.6 44.4 -

Dec 3 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book - - - - - -
Dec 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/29 - 525K NA 529K -
Dec 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Oct - -3.7% -2.7% -2.5% -

Dec 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek Nov - 33.6 33.6 33.6 -
Dec 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Nov - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Dec 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Nov - -280K -300K -240K - Dec 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Nov - 6.7% 6.8% 6.5% - Dec 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Oct - $4.0B $2.7B $6.9B

GOLD
Gold upside Target now is $775.00 and $757.00 down side.

US DOLLAR target 87.19 upside and 85.50 down side.

Natural Gas
Natural Gas, XNG air kissed the 50 sma 420, look for dip now . It should hold up better in this cold weather that crude oil relatively speaking even in the crude dip today. UNG  holding in a sideways consolidation pattern.


MOBO BREAKOUTS TO THE UPSIDE

CTC



$2 > STOCKS with positive indications
MESA
FNM
LNET


BULL ENGULFING
MTZ
ABD


BULL KICKER
NONE


SPECIAL SITUATION STOCKS
MVIS up 70% off lows , Our special Watch stock with new product development.
Showing up technicals for Friday +3% and +8% Monday.

Let me know what you think.


EPPV TECHNICAL INDICATOR 4.0 for Trade Station is now available on our web site, wallstreetteachers.com (407) 719-2592



Live chats began again. They can be reviewed in the archives at http://www.chartsnchat.com/
VIEWING PROBLEMS ?
the files are AVI files and play in Windows Media Player WMP).

First solution.

Most people who have the problem you are describing need to install a codec (special plug in) to make the AVI files work in WMP.

This is noted on the webpage in chartsnchat where the files are posted.

Reminder for downloading: if this is the first archive you have viewed, you MUST download the codec). Go here for the codec:

http://www.techsmith.com/codecs/tscc/default.asp

.

A second, even better solution is to use the Camtasia Media Player which can be downloaded from:

http://www.techsmith.com/download/accessories/default.asp#camtasiaccessories

See: Camtasia Studio Accessories and Tools, then Camtasia Player, a simple standalone video player for Windows. Optimized for playing screen recordings.

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Last update : 02-12-2008 06:06