Horrible week for long positions,
but you don't need me to reiterate that.
The portfolio I started in January
is still up, but losing a lot of ground. This week I had to liquidate my first
position at a loss (CHS). I had bought at 9.85 and sold at 9.06 during the
reversal day for a loss of 8%. It was a good thing I did sell it, because CHS
kept going down and is now at 7.42.
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Current E
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Time Longest position
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Daily
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Annualized
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Return On Equity
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1.33%
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37
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0.04%
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11.82%
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Month 1 Return
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2.63%
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Month 2 Return
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-1.30%
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The portfolio had ended up February
with a 2.63% gain, and lost during this first week 50% of its gains (thus the
somber tone of my post today).
The biggest winner is RIG, up 11.5%
since bought
The biggest loser is MRK, down
9.73%. MRK is reaching the risk limit the position had, as it reached a
long-term support area. If you look at a MRK chart you will see between October
of 2006 and March of 2007, the 41.6 area acted as support for creating a base
before the run up in May 2007.
MRK also completed 5 waves down
since the peak in December 2007. So there is high probability for MRK to bounce
from these levels. Failing to bounce and breaking down will signal my exit, and
a loss of 11%/12% on this position.
(ADMIN! We really need Charts here,
when are you going to install them?).
EXPD is down 6% since I bought, but
I am looking at the monthly chart and I don't see yet a reason to sell. This
one will require a lot of patience and a careful eye should it break the
support levels at around 38.
All in all, for a long only
portfolio during a bearish market, I am satisfied with the results. The key
from now on will be to keep managing risk to avoid further erosion of the
gains. I agree with the view of other posters that we are close to a bounce,
probably starting on Monday, but hope does not make us money, and due diligence
does.
Have a great weekend
everybody!
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Last update : 09-03-2008 00:00
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